Meeting Recording
Note: Summary notes of the meeting are below the video in this article.
Summary:
New Member Portal Update: Stephen Cox announced that a new members area is in development, which will feature a user-friendly system for tracking course progress. Participants will be automatically transferred, and an email notification will be sent well in advance of this transition.
US 500 Options Strategy Introduction: Stephen Cox introduced a day trading strategy based on Irene's approach of applying established day trading rules to US 500 options. The strategy, which is currently undergoing back-testing, focuses on shorter trade durations rather than holding to expiry.
Market Drivers - Bond Yields and Oil Prices: Stephen Cox highlighted concerns regarding rising bond yields, which hit a high of 4.695% that day, noting that exceeding 5% could become problematic for the broader market. Additionally, they identified rising oil prices, which surged from $70 to $90 per barrel over two weeks, as a negative factor for airline stocks and a contributor to market instability.
Day Trading Strategy Mechanics: The strategy requires the index to be above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages before placing a trade. Stephen Cox explained that they utilize 15-minute charts and look for the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to drop below 30 before considering an entry, effectively waiting for downtrends to stabilize before selling option premiums.
Trade Setup for July 31 Expiry: Stephen Cox identified the 7200 put option expiring on July 31 as the primary focus. They expressed a desire for a premium above 20 to 25 and noted that a 1.5% market sell-off would likely drive premiums to this target range, at which point they would trigger the trade.
Risk Management and Position Sizing: For the trade, Stephen Cox specified a bet size of 1 contract for every 10,000 in an IG platform account, or two contracts per 10,000 for Interactive Brokers (IBKR) using MEES micro futures. Standard risk management involves a 7% out-of-the-money rule, though this is adjusted to a shorter timeframe given the one-week expiry.
Roll-Out Strategy: In the event that the index drops to 7250, Stephen Cox instructed participants to roll the position out and down to the August expiry. This process involves buying out of the current contract and opening a new one, a strategy intended to manage risk without needing subjective decision-making.
Platform-Specific Execution: Nanik Hotwani asked about differences between platforms, and Stephen Cox clarified that the IG platform is a "betting" style execution, whereas IBKR uses cash-settled MEES micro futures. Stephen Cox emphasized that they would provide specific WhatsApp alerts for both platform types to assist users in execution.
MEES Micro Futures Particulars: Stephen Cox noted that the MEES micro futures contract has a multiplier of five, contrasted with 50 for main contracts. Trading these futures offers the advantage of 24/5 market access compared to SPY, and currently, the trade offered approximately 1.2% income with a 96% probability of profit.
Short-Term Strategy Shift: Stephen Cox expressed a preference for the new day trading strategy over holding options to expiry, citing that the rules are similar but allow for earlier profit-taking. They noted that being out of the market more frequently reduces the probability of adverse outcomes, and they plan to incorporate this approach into the main trading strategy.
Profit Taking Objectives: Answering a question from Nanik Hotwani, Stephen Cox explained that the goal is to exit trades when they achieve approximately 0.3% return in a day or if the 15-minute RSI rebounds to 70. These criteria act as triggers to close positions, allowing for recurring, short-term gains.
Execution Guidance for Tom Hanley: Responding to Tom Hanley regarding trade timing, Stephen Cox confirmed they were targeting the 7200 strike and would not enter the trade until receiving a signal via WhatsApp. They reiterated that the trade depends on news flow and market movement.
Bond Market Dynamics and TLT Strategy: Michael Carroll inquired about TLT bond positions given rising yields. Stephen Cox advised taking assignment and switching to selling covered calls. Brendan O'Reilly asked about selling puts on TLT, which Stephen Cox supported, recommending a 40 to 45-day expiry window for income generation.
Interrelation of Assets: Stephen Cox pointed out the correlation between rising bond yields, a strengthening dollar, and the subsequent sell-off in gold. They advised that while gold has long-term potential, the short-term chart looks bearish, and they suggested taking profits on current long positions.
Market Outlook and Corrections: Stephen Cox addressed the potential for a market "breather," noting that rising oil, bond yields, and Middle East conflict could cause choppiness. While they remain bullish for year-end, predicting an 8,000 target for the S&P 500, they believe a 5% to 10% correction is possible due to the rapid recent market ascent.
Individual Stock Analysis: Reviewing specific equities, Stephen Cox noted that Google’s earnings were strong despite market concerns over capital expenditure spending. They also suggested that companies like Alaska Airlines and various energy stocks could be attractive if prices drop further. Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle were discussed, with Oracle noted as potentially cheap but currently in a significant downtrend that requires a technical stabilization before entry.
Crude Oil Bull Call Spread: Nanik Hotwani asked for advice on a profitable oil bull call spread. Stephen Cox recommended taking the 100% unrealized profit off the table, noting that futures contracts lose value as they approach expiry.
Live Trade Execution: Toward the end of the meeting, Stephen Cox demonstrated "haggling" a limit price on the MEES contract by adjusting the order in increments to match the market spread. They successfully filled the order at 1540 and reminded participants to wait for the official WhatsApp notification before following trades.
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