📊⏱️ Day Trading Ideas - FX & Gold

Todays ideas:

🚀 Options & Futures Trades

This portfolio is our most profitable and favored due to its inherent advantage: the ability to structure high-probability trades that consistently put the odds in our favor. Our year-to-date Return on Investment (ROI) is exceptional, driven by a sustained 93% success rate using our proprietary short put strategy on SPY. This is a critical area where seeking additional knowledge is highly recommended.

Current Option Trades:

📈 SPY Short Put Update: Dec 19th $620 Strike

Position Overview:

Trade: Short SPY Dec 19th $620 Put.
Open Date: November 7th.
Initial Income (Max Profit): $5.00 per share (or $500 per contract).
Breakeven Price: $615.00 ($620 Strike - $5.00 Credit).

Current Status and Management: Profit of $421 per contract. SPY trading at $680.

We maintain a neutral-to-bullish outlook and are content to allow the trade to continue benefiting from time decay (Theta). We have a 99% probability of profit on this trade. No plans to exit this trade just yet.

📉 SPY Dec 19th Ratio Put Spread Update

Trade Details:

Instrument: SPY Dec 19th $660/$650 Ratio Put Spread (1x Long $660P, 2x Short $650P).
Opened: Friday, November 14th.
Initial Credit: $5.80 (or $580 per spread).
Breakeven: $634.20.
Current Status: SPY trading at $680. Implied Volatility has dropped and the trade is now in profit to the value of $472 per contract.
Trade Mgt: None for now... let the trade run.

Click Here to access these trade details.

📈 Long-Term Stock Investment Strategy

These positions are based on fundamentally sound companies that represent compelling long-term buying opportunities. We are committed to a patient, buy-and-hold approach, willing to maintain these stocks for multiple years or until the target price is achieved. This strategy is ideal for less active investors with a long time horizon.

We've already closed out two positions Entain and Vestas Wind Systems, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.

📈 Short Term Stock Trade Strategy

These companies are fundamentally sound and their recent stock sell-offs represent a buying opportunity. While we aim for quick, short-term exits, we are comfortable holding these positions for the longer term if they trade lower.

We will refrain from adding any new short-term stock trades until we have exited at least two of the current positions. Our commitment is to maintain all existing trades until their short-term target prices are achieved.

📅 Market Review for Monday, December 1, 2025

The start of December saw a return of risk-off sentiment across global markets. US indices declined, breaking the recent positive streak, as investor focus shifted to weakness in the crypto market, soft manufacturing data from China, and resurfacing concerns over AI stock valuations.

📈 Equities (Stocks)

US indices closed lower, giving back some of the late-November gains:

The S&P 500 declined, settling lower after its recent four-day rally.
The Nasdaq Composite saw the largest decline as technology and growth stocks were sold off.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell, but its decline was less pronounced, suggesting a rotation back into defensive sectors.

The decline was led by the Technology sector. Nvidia was notably lower, falling by around -1.8% ahead of the open and continuing to face competitive and valuation worries despite its recent strong earnings. Other AI-related stocks, including AMD and Meta Platforms, also saw early selling amid the general downturn in risk assets. Conversely, traditionally defensive stocks like Consumer Staples and some energy names like Chevron (up following an analyst upgrade) showed relative strength.

🪙 Crypto

The digital asset market was a significant source of market weakness, triggering the broader risk-off move.

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a sharp dive, falling by over -5% during the session, with the price dropping significantly from its recent highs.
The sharp decline in crypto asset prices translated into pressure on tech and high-beta stocks, reinforcing the view among some analysts that crypto volatility is acting as a leading indicator for broader risk appetite in the equity market.

🏛️ Bonds

US Treasury yields generally moved higher, a slight reversal from the strong rally seen last week.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note rose marginally to approximately 4.06% - 4.07%. This increase in yield (fall in bond prices) reflected renewed concerns over rising competition from Japan's bond market, as hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan Governor raised the possibility of a rate hike there.

💰 Commodities

Commodity markets were mixed, with energy seeing modest support while Gold attracted safe-haven flows:

WTI Crude Oil futures were slightly higher, trading near $59.00 per barrel. Prices saw a modest rise on supply concerns following the recent OPEC meeting.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures added to Friday's sharp gains, posting another rise of approximately +1.46% to a near three-year high. Prices remain strongly bullish, driven by continuous forecasts for colder-than-normal US temperatures in December and high demand from LNG exports.
Gold saw a strong performance, rising by approximately +0.8% to trade over $4,200 per ounce. This rise suggests that money may be rotating out of highly volatile crypto assets and into the traditional safety of Gold amid the generalized risk aversion.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened slightly, declining by about -0.4% to 99.06.

The Dollar's depreciation was driven by investor conviction that the Federal Reserve will proceed with a rate cut later this month.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) was the strongest performer, rising sharply after the Bank of Japan Governor gave unexpectedly hawkish remarks, suggesting a near-term rate hike could be on the table, which significantly boosted the Yen's appeal.

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