📊⏱️ Day Trading Ideas - FX & Gold

Previous Day Trades:

We traded EUR.GBP for a gain on Monday. Gold issued a short term trading signal but we did not trade it as it took some time for a lower low to register.

Todays ideas:

🚀 Options & Futures Trades

This portfolio is our most profitable and favored due to its inherent advantage: the ability to structure high-probability trades that consistently put the odds in our favor. Our year-to-date Return on Investment (ROI) is exceptional, driven by a sustained 93% success rate using our proprietary short put strategy on SPY. This is a critical area where seeking additional knowledge is highly recommended.

Current Option Trades:

📈 SPY Short Put Update: Dec 19th $620 Strike

Position Overview:

Trade: Short SPY Dec 19th $620 Put.
Open Date: November 7th.
Initial Income (Max Profit): $5.00 per share (or $500 per contract).
Breakeven Price: $615.00 ($620 Strike - $5.00 Credit).

Current Status and Management: The position is gone back into profit with SPY trading at $668.

We maintain a neutral-to-bullish outlook and are content to allow the trade to continue benefiting from time decay (Theta). We still have an 97% probability of profit on this trade. Our standing exit plan is to close the position and realize gains upon achieving 75% of the maximum potential profit.

📉 SPY Dec 19th Ratio Put Spread Update

Trade Details:

Instrument: SPY Dec 19th $660/$650 Ratio Put Spread (1x Long $660P, 2x Short $650P).
Opened: Friday, November 14th.
Initial Credit: $5.80 (or $580 per spread).
Breakeven: $654.20 ($660 - $5.80). [Note: The original breakeven of $534.20 seems incorrect for a $660/$650 spread, I've corrected it to $654.20]
Current Status: The trade is currently at a loss following SPY's drop towards the short $650 strike. Maximum profit is achieved if SPY closes exactly at the short $650 strike at expiration (Unlikely to happen).

Proposed Adjustment (Aggressive Strategy): We are considering a proactive management step: closing the Long $660 Put and leaving the two Short $650 Puts naked. This adjustment is based on the conviction that the current market pullback is a "buy-the-dip" event, and the VIX is nearing a temporary peak. Risk Disclosure: This is an aggressive adjustment that significantly increases risk by converting the spread into two naked short puts. It requires substantial margin capacity and experience. Please contact me for a web meeting or WhatsApp chat if you require assistance or have questions.

Alternative Adjustment (Passive Strategy): For those who have no interest in taking assignment of SPY at a breakeven of $635 as per the original trade, you could rollout half of the short $650 puts to January and down to the $620 strike.

Click Here to access these trade details.

📈 Long-Term Stock Investment Strategy

These positions are based on fundamentally sound companies that represent compelling long-term buying opportunities. We are committed to a patient, buy-and-hold approach, willing to maintain these stocks for multiple years or until the target price is achieved. This strategy is ideal for less active investors with a long time horizon.

We've already closed out two positions Entain and Vestas Wind Systems, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.

📈 Short Term Stock Trade Strategy

These companies are fundamentally sound and their recent stock sell-offs represent a buying opportunity. While we aim for quick, short-term exits, we are comfortable holding these positions for the longer term if they trade lower.

We will refrain from adding any new short-term stock trades until we have exited at least two of the current positions. Our commitment is to maintain all existing trades until their short-term target prices are achieved.

📅 Market Review for Monday, November 24, 2025

Monday, November 24, 2025, saw US equities rally sharply, recovering much of the ground lost during the previous week's volatility. The surge was fueled by an aggressive rebound in AI and chip stocks and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

📈 Equities (Stocks)

US indices posted strong gains across the board, led by technology:

The Nasdaq Composite was the standout performer, soaring by +2.7%, closing at $22,273.08.
The S&P 500 climbed significantly by +1.6%, closing at $6,602.99. All 11 sectors of the index finished in positive territory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose more modestly by +0.4% (around 200 points), closing at $46,245.41.

The primary drivers were the large-cap technology and AI stocks. Alphabet (Google) shares jumped over +6% following positive sentiment around its new Gemini 3 AI model, helping power the S&P 500. Broadcom surged over +11%, and AI darling Nvidia reversed its recent losses to finish up +2%. This rebound was largely driven by renewed appetite for high-quality growth stocks at what investors viewed as discounted prices following the previous week's sell-off.

🪙 Crypto

The digital asset space staged a notable rebound, mirroring the risk-on shift in equities after a period of intense selling pressure.

Bitcoin (BTC) bounced back aggressively, rising by approximately +1.7% to trade near the $89,000 level, pulling away from its recent lows.
Crypto-related stocks, such as platform Coinbase and software firm MicroStrategy, also recorded strong sessions, climbing back some of the ground lost during the recent crypto sell-off.
The turnaround in crypto sentiment was partly attributed to a broader market 'risk-on' mood and increased optimism about global liquidity driven by the rising bets on a December Federal Reserve rate cut.

🏛️ Bonds

US Treasury yields ticked lower as optimism around future Fed rate cuts increased, despite the strong stock market rally.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note eased marginally to approximately 4.04% from 4.06% on Friday. The decline in yield reflected comments from New York Fed President John Williams, who signaled room for another rate cut in December, which reinforced market expectations that easing is imminent.

💰 Commodities

Commodity markets were mixed, with crude oil and precious metals both finding support:

WTI Crude Oil futures rose by approximately +1.5%, settling near $58.95 per barrel. Prices gained ground due to overall energy demand optimism heading into the holiday week.
Gold futures were significantly higher, rising by over +1.2% to trade around $4,130 per ounce. Gold was supported by the softening US Dollar and increased expectations for Fed rate cuts, which typically favors the non-yielding asset.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures saw a modest pullback, declining by approximately -0.68%. Prices eased slightly as forecasts indicated mixed US weather conditions, tempering the recent rally driven by cold weather outlooks. The price traded near the $4.45 - $4.55 per MMBtu range.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, was essentially flat, trading near 100.17.

The Dollar's flatness came despite the strong risk-on move in equities, suggesting conflicting forces: the stock rally weakened its safe-haven appeal, but rising expectations for near-term rate cuts limited its upside.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remained near recent lows against the Dollar, with USD/JPY trading around 157.70, reflecting ongoing concerns about Japan's fiscal position and central bank policy.

Upcoming Earnings Announcements

Click Here to view

Upcoming Economic Announcements