📊⏱️ Day Trading Ideas - FX & Gold

Previous Day Trades:

On Friday we successfully traded the JPY.USD twice and Gold once.

Todays ideas:

🚀 Options & Futures Trades

This portfolio is our most profitable and favored due to its inherent advantage: the ability to structure high-probability trades that consistently put the odds in our favor. Our year-to-date Return on Investment (ROI) is exceptional, driven by a sustained 93% success rate using our proprietary short put strategy on SPY. This is a critical area where seeking additional knowledge is highly recommended.

Current Option Trades

📈 SPY Short Put Update: Dec 19th $620 Strike

Position Overview:

Trade: Short SPY Dec 19th $620 Put.
Open Date: November 7th.
Initial Income (Max Profit): $5.00 per share (or $500 per contract).
Breakeven Price: $615.00 ($620 Strike - $5.00 Credit).

Current Status and Management: The position is gone back into profit with SPY trading at $659 after Friday's rally.

We maintain a neutral-to-bullish outlook and are content to allow the trade to continue benefiting from time decay (Theta). We still have an 91% probability of profit on this trade. Our standing exit plan is to close the position and realize gains upon achieving 75% of the maximum potential profit.

📉 SPY Dec 19th Ratio Put Spread Update

Trade Details:

Instrument: SPY Dec 19th $660/$650 Ratio Put Spread (1x Long $660P, 2x Short $650P).
Opened: Friday, November 14th.
Initial Credit: $5.80 (or $580 per spread).
Breakeven: $654.20 ($660 - $5.80). [Note: The original breakeven of $534.20 seems incorrect for a $660/$650 spread, I've corrected it to $654.20]
Current Status: The trade is currently at a loss following SPY's drop towards the short $650 strike. Maximum profit is achieved if SPY closes exactly at the short $650 strike at expiration (Unlikely to happen).

Proposed Adjustment (Aggressive Strategy): We are considering a proactive management step: closing the Long $660 Put and leaving the two Short $650 Puts naked. This adjustment is based on the conviction that the current market pullback is a "buy-the-dip" event, and the VIX is nearing a temporary peak. Risk Disclosure: This is an aggressive adjustment that significantly increases risk by converting the spread into two naked short puts. It requires substantial margin capacity and experience. Please contact me for a web meeting or WhatsApp chat if you require assistance or have questions.

Alternative Adjustment (Passive Strategy): For those who have no interest in taking assignment of SPY at a breakeven of $635 as per the original trade, you could rollout half of the short $650 puts to January and down to the $620 strike.

Click Here to access these trade details.

📈 Long-Term Stock Investment Strategy

These positions are based on fundamentally sound companies that represent compelling long-term buying opportunities. We are committed to a patient, buy-and-hold approach, willing to maintain these stocks for multiple years or until the target price is achieved. This strategy is ideal for less active investors with a long time horizon.

We've already closed out two positions Entain and Vestas Wind Systems, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.

📈 Short Term Stock Trade Strategy

These companies are fundamentally sound and their recent stock sell-offs represent a buying opportunity. While we aim for quick, short-term exits, we are comfortable holding these positions for the longer term if they trade lower.

We will refrain from adding any new short-term stock trades until we have exited at least two of the current positions. Our commitment is to maintain all existing trades until their short-term target prices are achieved.

📅 Market Review for Friday, November 21, 2025

Friday, November 21, 2025, closed the trading week with a modest recovery in US equities, led by the technology sector, as investors cautiously bought the dip following the dramatic volatility earlier in the week. Despite the daily gains, major indices still closed the week with substantial losses.

📈 Equities (Stocks)

US indices posted modest gains, although trading volume was lighter than usual:

The Nasdaq Composite led the rebound, rising by +0.8%, closing at $22,624.78.
The S&P 500 posted a gain of +0.5%, closing at $6,572.71.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average also closed higher by +0.3%, ending at $46,450.41.

The technology sector saw the strongest rebound, with investors stepping back into high-growth, AI-related stocks that were heavily sold off on Thursday. Nvidia was marginally higher, stabilizing after its post-earnings reversal. The market was also supported by optimism surrounding the upcoming long US holiday weekend, which typically encourages a "risk-on" closure. However, volatility remained high, and the broader market remained fragile, reflecting deep uncertainty over valuations.

🏛️ Bonds

US Treasury prices fell (yields rose) on Friday, reflecting the improved risk sentiment in the equity market and a slight decline in demand for safe-haven assets.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note rose to approximately 4.13% from 4.10% the previous day. This upward movement in yields (fall in bond prices) suggested that traders were easing back on expectations for immediate Federal Reserve rate cuts, especially with key economic data still pending release next week.

💰 Commodities

Commodity markets showed varied performance, with energy struggling and natural gas rallying again:

WTI Crude Oil futures fell sharply, declining by approximately -2.1%, settling near $57.25 per barrel. The steep drop was primarily due to renewed concerns over a global oversupply and weak demand signals, despite geopolitical tensions. Brent Crude also saw a significant decline, settling around $61.35 per barrel.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures saw a strong rally, climbing by over +2.7% to settle near $4.59 per MMBtu. Prices were strongly supported by updated forecasts indicating an early and colder-than-expected start to winter across the major US consuming regions.
Gold saw a marginal rise, trading around $4,055 per ounce, benefiting from its safe-haven status as the US Dollar weakened slightly.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar Index (DXY) ended the week slightly lower, easing back from its recent highs, closing near 100.05.

The Dollar's modest weakness was attributed to the cautious rebound in equities and the fact that US Treasury yields did not rise enough to support the currency significantly.
The Euro (EUR) was slightly firmer against the Dollar, trading around the $1.1550 mark (based on the inverse of the USD/EUR rate of $\text{0.8658}$). The overall FX market was relatively quiet as traders squared positions ahead of the weekend.

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