📊⏱️ Day Trading Ideas - FX & Gold

Yesterdays Trades:

We did not execute any trades yesterday. A decision was made to avoid the FX market due to a flus of economic data from the US side, and no valid short-term buy or sell signals were generated for Gold. Consequently, we remained on the sidelines for the session.

Todays ideas:

🚀 Options & Futures Trades

This portfolio is our most profitable and favored due to its inherent advantage: the ability to structure high-probability trades that consistently put the odds in our favor. Our year-to-date Return on Investment (ROI) is exceptional, driven by a sustained 93% success rate using our proprietary short put strategy on SPY. This is a critical area where seeking additional knowledge is highly recommended.

Current Option Trades

📈 SPY Short Put Update: Dec 19th $620 Strike

Position Overview:

Trade: Short SPY Dec 19th $620 Put.
Open Date: November 7th.
Initial Income (Max Profit): $5.00 per share (or $500 per contract).
Breakeven Price: $615.00 ($620 Strike - $5.00 Credit).

Current Status and Management: The recent pullback in SPY towards $652, coupled with the corresponding increase in implied volatility (IV), has temporarily moved the position into an unrealized loss.

We maintain a neutral-to-bullish outlook and are content to allow the trade to continue benefiting from time decay (Theta). We still have an 85% probability of profit on this trade. Our standing exit plan is to close the position and realize gains upon achieving 75% of the maximum potential profit.

📉 SPY Dec 19th Ratio Put Spread Update

Trade Details:

Instrument: SPY Dec 19th $660/$650 Ratio Put Spread (1x Long $660P, 2x Short $650P).
Opened: Friday, November 14th.
Initial Credit: $5.80 (or $580 per spread).
Breakeven: $654.20 ($660 - $5.80). [Note: The original breakeven of $534.20 seems incorrect for a $660/$650 spread, I've corrected it to $654.20]
Current Status: The trade is currently at a loss following SPY's drop towards the short $650 strike. Maximum profit is achieved if SPY closes exactly at the short $650 strike at expiration (Unlikely to happne).

Proposed Adjustment (Aggressive Strategy): We are considering a proactive management step: closing the Long $660 Put and leaving the two Short $650 Puts naked. This adjustment is based on the conviction that the current market pullback is a "buy-the-dip" event, and the VIX is nearing a temporary peak. Risk Disclosure: This is an aggressive adjustment that significantly increases risk by converting the spread into two naked short puts. It requires substantial margin capacity and experience. Please contact me for a web meeting or WhatsApp chat if you require assistance or have questions.

Alternative Adjustment (Passive Strategy): For those who have no interest in taking assignment of SPY at a breakeven of $635 as per the original trade, you could rollout half of the short $650 puts to January and down to the $620 strike.

Click Here to access these trade details.

📈 Long-Term Stock Investment Strategy

These positions are based on fundamentally sound companies that represent compelling long-term buying opportunities. We are committed to a patient, buy-and-hold approach, willing to maintain these stocks for multiple years or until the target price is achieved. This strategy is ideal for less active investors with a long time horizon.

We've already closed out two positions Entain and Vestas Wind Systems, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.

📈 Short Term Stock Trade Strategy

These companies are fundamentally sound and their recent stock sell-offs represent a buying opportunity. While we aim for quick, short-term exits, we are comfortable holding these positions for the longer term if they trade lower.

We will refrain from adding any new short-term stock trades until we have exited at least two of the current positions. Our commitment is to maintain all existing trades until their short-term target prices are achieved.

📅 Market Review for Thursday, November 20, 2025

Thursday, November 20, 2025, was marked by jarring volatility. US stocks initially soared following strong after-hours earnings from AI leader Nvidia, but the rally failed spectacularly, leading to heavy losses by the end of the session as deep-seated fears of an AI bubble resurfaced.

📈 Equities (Stocks)

US indices closed sharply lower after an impressive early morning surge:

The Nasdaq Composite plummeted by -2.2%, erasing an earlier gain of over 2.0%.
The S&P 500 fell by -1.6%, reversing an early advance of over 1.9%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by -0.8%, giving up an early 700-point gain.

The market had opened higher in relief after Nvidia beat all Wall Street expectations and gave bullish guidance. However, the relief was short-lived. Nvidia shares themselves, which had been up 5% early, closed down -3.2%, triggering a massive sell-off across the entire chip and AI ecosystem. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) slumped nearly 8%, and Micron Technology tumbled over -10%. Analysts noted that while the chipmaker is benefiting, the firms buying the chips (the hyper-scalers) are spending too much, reigniting bubble concerns.

In contrast, Walmart shares jumped on strong earnings and an optimistic outlook, but this wasn't enough to counteract the tech sector's drag.

Why Nvidia Stock Plunged After Strong Earnings

The decline was not due to a problem with Nvidia's performance; it was due to a reassessment of the entire AI trade and the concept of an "AI bubble."

"Bubble" Fears Re-Ignited by Customer Spending:
- Nvidia reported huge sales and gave a very strong forecast. This proved that demand for their chips is still robust.
- The market's concern immediately pivoted to the customers—the "hyperscalers" like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google—who are spending hundreds of billions of dollars on these chips to build AI infrastructure.
- The sentiment was: "Nvidia is great, but are the companies buying the chips spending 'too much money' with an uncertain return on investment?" This fear suggests that Nvidia's growth is being driven by unsustainable, aggressive capital spending by its customers.
Profit-Taking and High Expectations:
- Nvidia's stock had already climbed significantly leading up to the earnings report, driven by extremely high expectations (the stock was priced for perfection).
- When the stock initially jumped in pre-market trading, many traders and investors who had bought the stock cheaply saw it as the perfect time to take profits, leading to massive selling pressure throughout the day.
- The early +5% gain quickly reversed as skepticism overwhelmed relief.
The Entire Sector Followed:
- The market views Nvidia as the bellwether for the entire AI ecosystem. When Nvidia itself failed to hold its gains, it signaled that even the biggest winner might be overvalued.
- This triggered a broad-based panic sell-off in related AI stocks, including AMD, Broadcom, and Micron Technology, dragging the entire Nasdaq and the broader market down with it.

In summary: The earnings confirmed Nvidia's dominance, but they simultaneously intensified the fear that the cost of the AI revolution is unsustainable for the customers driving the demand, leading to a massive loss of confidence across the entire tech sector.

🏛️ Bonds

US Treasury prices rose (yields fell) as the dramatic stock market sell-off prompted a shift back into safe-haven government debt.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note eased slightly to approximately 4.09% from 4.13% the previous day. The drop in yields reflected the flight to safety and a mixed jobs report released earlier in the day, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates on hold at their next meeting.

💰 Commodities

Commodity prices were mixed, with crude oil under pressure but natural gas stabilizing:

WTI Crude Oil futures saw a decline, trading around $59.19 per barrel (down approximately -1.0% to -2.44% depending on the contract). Prices were weighed down by a weak demand outlook and a mixed inventory report.
Brent Crude Oil also saw a pullback, settling near $63.50 per barrel.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures saw minor fluctuations, closing around $4.45 - $4.55 per MMBtu. Prices are being supported by consistent demand for LNG exports and forecasts of upcoming colder weather in December, stabilizing after the recent volatility.
Gold saw modest pressure, trading lower around $4,045 per ounce, with its safe-haven support being countered by the overall confusion in the market.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar Index (DXY), after initially rising, fell back to finish essentially flat, closing around the 100.09 level.

The Dollar's strength was whipsawed by the mixed jobs report and the extreme volatility in equities.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continued its sharp weakening trend, with the Dollar rising to a new high against the Yen (USD/JPY approaching the 157.78 level). This strong move in the Yen was driven by concerns over Japan's fiscal policy and the widening rate gap.

Upcoming Earnings Announcements

Click Here to view

Upcoming Economic Announcements