📊⏱️ Day Trading Ideas - FX & Gold

Yesterdays Trades:

Yesterday, we executed two successful intra-day trades on Gold (XAU/USD), as detailed in the records below. Both positions were opened and closed within a short timeframe, aligning perfectly with the risk management strategy outlined in yesterday morning's video updates for a $10,000 account. This resulted in a 1% return on investment (ROI) for the day, which is entirely tax-free.

Note: We traded this again this morning.

Todays ideas:

🚀 Options & Strategy

This portfolio is our most profitable and favored due to its inherent advantage: the ability to structure high-probability trades that consistently put the odds in our favor. Our year-to-date Return on Investment (ROI) is exceptional, driven by a sustained 93% success rate using our proprietary short put strategy on SPY. This is a critical area where seeking additional knowledge is highly recommended.

Current Option Trades

📈 SPY Short Put Update: Dec 19th $620 Strike

Position Overview:

Trade: Short SPY Dec 19th $620 Put.
Open Date: November 7th.
Initial Income (Max Profit): $5.00 per share (or $500 per contract).
Breakeven Price: $615.00 ($620 Strike - $5.00 Credit).

Current Status and Management: The recent pullback in SPY towards $660, coupled with the corresponding increase in implied volatility (IV), has temporarily moved the position into an unrealized loss.

We maintain a neutral-to-bullish outlook and are content to allow the trade to continue benefiting from time decay (Theta). Our standing exit plan is to close the position and realize gains upon achieving 75% of the maximum potential profit.

📉 SPY Dec 19th Ratio Put Spread Update

Trade Details:

Instrument: SPY Dec 19th $660/$650 Ratio Put Spread (1x Long $660P, 2x Short $650P).
Opened: Friday, November 14th.
Initial Credit: $5.80 (or $580 per spread).
Breakeven: $654.20 ($660 - $5.80). [Note: The original breakeven of $534.20 seems incorrect for a $660/$650 spread, I've corrected it to $654.20]
Current Status: The trade is currently at a loss following SPY's drop towards the short $660 strike. Maximum profit is achieved if SPY closes exactly at the short $650 strike at expiration.

Proposed Adjustment (Aggressive Strategy): We are considering a proactive management step: closing the Long $660 Put and leaving the two Short $650 Puts naked. This adjustment is based on the conviction that the current market pullback is a "buy-the-dip" event, and the VIX is nearing a temporary peak.

Risk Disclosure: This is an aggressive adjustment that significantly increases risk by converting the spread into two naked short puts. It requires substantial margin capacity and experience. Please contact me for a web meeting or WhatsApp chat if you require assistance or have questions.

Click Here to access these trade details.

📈 Long-Term Stock Investment Strategy

These positions are based on fundamentally sound companies that represent compelling long-term buying opportunities. We are committed to a patient, buy-and-hold approach, willing to maintain these stocks for multiple years or until the target price is achieved. This strategy is ideal for less active investors with a long time horizon.

We've already closed out two positions Entain and Vestas Wind Systems, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.

📈 Short Term Stock Trade Strategy

These companies are fundamentally sound and their recent stock sell-offs represent a buying opportunity. While we aim for quick, short-term exits, we are comfortable holding these positions for the longer term if they trade lower.

We will refrain from adding any new short-term stock trades until we have exited at least two of the current positions. Our commitment is to maintain all existing trades until their short-term target prices are achieved.

📅 Market Review for Tuesday, November 18, 2025

Tuesday, November 18, 2025, saw US equities extend their losing streak. The sell-off was centered on the technology sector as investors turned defensive and took profits, unwilling to hold onto high-valuation stocks ahead of the highly anticipated Nvidia earnings report today.

📈 Equities (Stocks)

US indices posted significant losses, with the Dow and S&P 500 suffering their fourth straight daily decline:

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped a substantial -1.1% (nearly 500 points), closing at $46,091.74.
The Nasdaq Composite fell by -1.2%, closing at $22,432.85.
The S&P 500 declined by -0.8%, closing at $6,617.32.

The main drag on the market was the AI/Technology sector. Nvidia fell by nearly -3% as it entered correction territory (a 10% decline from its high), and other tech giants like Microsoft (down -2.7%) and Amazon (down -4.4%) also saw heavy selling, partly due to negative analyst ratings and regulatory news. Additionally, disappointing corporate earnings and guidance from retailers like Home Depot (down -6%) added to the broad negative sentiment. Conversely, the Russell 2000 index of smaller companies showed resilience, gaining a modest +0.3%.

🏛️ Bonds

US Treasury yields ticked lower as the significant equity sell-off prompted a slight flight to safety among investors.

The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note declined marginally to 4.120% from 4.132% at Monday's close. The drop in yields reflects a minor rise in bond prices and increased speculation that the Federal Reserve may be prompted to accelerate rate cuts in the face of slowing economic data and a nervous equity market.

💰 Commodities

Commodity markets showed resilience, with crude oil posting a solid gain:

WTI Crude Oil futures rose by approximately +1.5%, settling near $60.80 per barrel. The rebound in oil prices was fueled by optimism regarding global demand prospects and the easing of supply chain issues.
US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures saw a modest gain, increasing by approximately +0.21% to close near $4.37 per MMBtu. Prices stabilized following Monday's sharp correction, with the outlook remaining supported by strong LNG export volumes.
Gold futures edged up slightly by +0.1%, closing near $4,070 per ounce, benefiting from its safe-haven appeal amid the broader market volatility.

💱 Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against a basket of currencies, was relatively flat for the day, closing near 99.59.

The Euro (EUR) was stable against the Dollar, trading around the $1.1592 mark (based on the inverse of the USD/EUR rate of $\text{0.8626}$). The dollar's strength was curtailed by the drop in bond yields, despite the sell-off in risk assets.

The focus for the rest of the week will be on the release of delayed US economic data and the highly anticipated Nvidia earnings on Wednesday.

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