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Nov 11th 2025 Stock Market Update

Updated over 3 weeks ago

πŸš€ Options, Futures, and FX Strategy

This portfolio is our most profitable and favored due to its inherent advantage: the ability to structure high-probability trades that consistently put the odds in our favor. Our year-to-date Return on Investment (ROI) is exceptional, driven by a sustained 93% success rate using our proprietary short put strategy on SPY. This is a critical area where seeking additional knowledge is highly recommended.

New Trade opened Friday 7th: We sold the SPY Dec 19th $620 Put option and generated $500 in income. The trade is already gone into profit of $273 after just 4 days. As you can see from the image below we have made 54% of our maximum profit on this trade. If that gets to 75% in the next coupel of days we will close down the trade and take the profit off the table. Click Here to access full trade details.


πŸ“ˆ Long-Term Stock Investment Strategy

These positions are based on fundamentally sound companies that represent compelling long-term buying opportunities. We are committed to a patient, buy-and-hold approach, willing to maintain these stocks for multiple years or until the target price is achieved. This strategy is ideal for less active investors with a long time horizon.

We've already closed out two positions Entain and Vestas Wind Systems, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.


πŸ“ˆ Short Term Stock Trade Strategy

These companies are fundamentally sound and their recent stock sell-offs represent a buying opportunity. While we aim for quick, short-term exits, we are comfortable holding these positions for the longer term if they trade lower.

We will refrain from adding any new short-term stock trades until we have exited at least two of the current positions. Our commitment is to maintain all existing trades until their short-term target prices are achieved.


πŸ“… Market Review for Monday, November 10, 2025

The trading day on Monday, November 10, 2025, saw a sharp and broad rally across US equity markets, largely driven by a major rebound in technology stocks and optimism surrounding a potential end to the prolonged US government shutdown.


πŸ“ˆ Equities (Stocks)

US indices surged, led by a strong return of investor appetite for risk assets, especially in the tech sector:

  • The Nasdaq Composite was the top performer, jumping by +2.27% to $23,527.17, marking its biggest one-day percentage increase in months.

  • The S&P 500 climbed significantly by +1.54% to $6,832.43, nearly erasing its losses from the previous week.

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose a solid +0.81% to $47,368.63.

The rally was powered by heavyweight technology and AI-related stocks, which rebounded sharply from recent declines. Nvidia jumped by over +5.8%, and Palantir Technologies surged by +8.8%. This risk-on mood was sparked by news that Congress had made significant progress toward passing a deal to restore federal funding and end the record-long government shutdown. The small-cap Russell 2000 index also saw gains of +0.9%.


πŸ›οΈ Bonds

US Treasury yields jumped, reversing the downward trend seen last week, as risk sentiment improved and hopes for the end of the government shutdown grew.

  • The yield on the benchmark US 10-Year Treasury note rose by nearly 5 basis points early in the session and was trading around 4.12% at the close. The increase in yields (fall in bond prices) reflected renewed market confidence in economic activity resuming, which typically reduces demand for safe-haven government debt.


πŸ’° Commodities

Energy and precious metals saw a mixed day, influenced by the shifting risk sentiment and the dollar's performance.

  • Crude Oil was generally higher on Monday. WTI Crude settled higher by approximately +0.64% to around $60.21 per barrel, supported by the expectation that the US government reopening would boost economic growth and, consequently, oil demand.

  • US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures saw significant volatility but ultimately moved higher, trading around $4.35 per MMBtu. Prices were being pushed up by strong fundamentals, including record LNG exports and cold weather forecasts, overriding the slight bearish pressure from last week's storage build.

  • Gold and Silver were relatively buoyant, seeing their rallies resume as markets weighed the current risk-on move against longer-term concerns about US fiscal sustainability.


πŸ’± Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar was mixed against major currencies but saw a general weakening against growth-sensitive and carry currencies.

  • The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened significantly against the Dollar, with USD/JPY rising toward the 154.00 level. This was a direct result of the sharp rise in US Treasury yields, which widened the interest rate gap with Japan.

  • The Australian Dollar (AUD) saw a notable surge against the greenback, a classic sign of improved global risk sentiment.

  • The Euro (EUR) was also slightly firmer against the Dollar, trading around the $1.1558 mark (based on the USD/EUR rate of $\text{0.8652}$).

Energy markets saw a rebound on Friday, although they closed out the week with a loss due to recent supply concerns.

  • Crude Oil prices rose for the day. WTI Crude gained approximately +0.54% to close around $59.75 per barrel, while Brent Crude rose by about +0.39% to $63.63 per barrel. Despite the daily gains, both benchmarks were on track for their second consecutive weekly loss as market concerns about oversupply continued to loom.

  • US Natural Gas (Henry Hub) futures saw a slight pullback, declining by approximately -0.96% to around $4.32 per MMBtu. The move came after a sharp rally over the previous days, with prices easing slightly from their multi-month highs.

  • Gold maintained its strength, holding above the $4,000 per ounce mark, supported by the weak consumer data and the associated decline in US Treasury yields.


πŸ’± Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar softened against major currency peers due to the deteriorating US economic outlook highlighted by the poor consumer confidence data, which favored a near-term Federal Reserve rate cut.

  • The Euro (EUR) strengthened against the Dollar, with the EUR/USD pair trading around $1.1569 (based on the inverse of the USD/EUR rate of $\text{0.86435}$).

  • The overall trend for the dollar remained weak heading into the weekend, as traders focused on the divergence in outlook between the soft US economy and more stable global central bank policies.


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