Video
Summary
Stephen Cox updated participants on options trading courses, which now feature more recent examples, a new search function, and client portal examples. Stephen Cox discussed closing a profitable SPY trade, analyzing crude oil and finding gold premiums insufficient, and discussed selling $87 puts on TLT for a high probability of profit. Stephen Cox further addressed the impact of rising US interest rates on the stock market, recommended holding MGM and Dominoes, and suggested averaging into Alaska for long-term investors, while advising Richard Fitzgerald on an entry price for Meta and a selling strategy for Coterra (CTRA).
Details
Updates to Option Trading Courses and Support Features Stephen Cox announced that many of the options trading courses have been redone with more recent examples for accuracy (00:02:56) (00:04:48). They highlighted a new search function available in the bottom right-hand corner for quick help, such as "how to close a short put option". Additionally, Stephen Cox noted that they have included new examples in the courses utilizing the client portal, detailing trade management and execution (00:03:51).
Market Review and Strategy for SPY Stephen Cox confirmed closing a short put trade on SPY for a profit, noting that the market pulled back slightly after the trade was placed (00:04:48). Observing a sell-off towards the market close and muted futures, Stephen Cox mentioned considering selling the 630 or 640 put options for November, deciding to wait and be patient before placing the trade (00:05:41).
Crude Oil Market Analysis and Trading Strategy Stephen Cox stated that holding off on trading crude oil was the correct decision, as recent trading saw a low that took out previous week-and-a-half lows, although a recovery is now visible. Stephen Cox is waiting for crude oil to revisit lower price points to secure a "nice juicy premium" for selling a put option below $52 (00:06:42). Stephen Cox indicated that a 2% or 3% sell-off would likely initiate building a position, but noted that lower lows are continuing, breaking out of a consolidation pattern (00:07:39).
Discussion on USO Short Put Position Brendan O'Reilly 262626 asked Stephen Cox for advice on their short put on USO at a $64 strike expiring November 21st, and whether they should close it. Stephen Cox advised against closing the position, recommending letting it run due to the low probability of the stock falling to that level (00:07:39). Brendan O'Reilly 262626 confirmed the position had a 94% probability of profit, which Stephen Cox explained is due to the stock needing a significant 10% drop in oil prices in two weeks to reach the strike price (00:08:46).
Assessment of Natural Gas and Gold (GLD) Trading Opportunities Stephen Cox noted that natural gas is "not a runner" due to a jump from contract switch-over and cold weather in the US. Regarding gold (GLD ETF), Stephen Cox is only interested in selling puts but finds the premiums insufficient for the desired strikes (00:10:02). Stephen Cox prefers the short put strategy on SPY because it offers better premiums, and does not see a reason to sell gold if they already own it, though they do not plan on jumping into it or selling put options right now (00:11:06).
Impact of Interest Rates on Stock Market Stephen Cox commented on the substantial rise in US interest rates (from 3.92% to 4.15%). They suggested this might dampen the stock market and indicates a lack of bond buying at current interest rates, necessitating increased yield. Stephen Cox concluded that higher interest rates make stocks less attractive, especially at current valuations, supporting the continued use of a short put strategy and anticipating a potential selloff (00:11:56).
Review of Short-Term and Long-Term Stock Trades Stephen Cox provided an update on short-term stock trades, noting most are currently down except for MGM (00:13:02). They recommended holding MGM and Dominoes, expecting them to rally during a "Santa Claus rally" (00:14:57). For long-term buy and hold investors, Stephen Cox suggested averaging into Alaska due to its return to a support area, despite recent earnings and software issues (00:13:02). Stephen Cox advised against averaging into Flutter now, citing a recent downgrade and uncertainty around a potential negative outcome from the UK budget (00:14:01).
Analysis of Meta and Long-Term Investment Potential Stephen Cox identified Meta as a potential long-term portfolio addition, despite it being currently "unloved" due to high spending on AI (00:14:57). Stephen Cox noted that the stock has a significant upside of over 30% to the target price of over $800, according to both their models and analyst models. Stephen Cox is not ready to jump in yet, preferring to wait for consolidation due to the risk of a broader market selloff dragging Meta down, but has it on their watchlist (00:15:55).
Discussion on Google's Valuation and Analyst Behavior Stephen Cox noted that Google is up nearly 100% and is benefiting from monetizing AI, with analysts continually increasing their target prices for the stock (00:16:51). Brendan O'Reilly 262626 criticized analysts for being reactive instead of predictive, only raising target prices when a stock is already climbing (00:17:51). Stephen Cox agreed, bringing up historical jokes about analysts and suggesting that conflicts of interest, such as investment banks' trading and advisory wings, could influence target price announcements (00:19:08).
Entry Point for Meta Stock Richard Fitzgerald asked Stephen Cox for a comfortable entry price range for Meta, given a current "strong buy" rating and potential pullback (00:20:14). Stephen Cox stated they were looking for the "low 600s" before pulling the trigger but admitted that buying now is acceptable for long-term investors using a dollar cost averaging approach, especially since the RSI is below 30 (00:21:32). Stephen Cox is currently concerned by a series of lower lows, but observed that yesterday marked the first day Meta did not make a new low (00:22:26).
Guidance on TLT Trading Strategy Jerry Prior asked Stephen Cox for guidance on TLT, which Stephen Cox found appealing for options trading if a decent premium is available (00:23:20). Stephen Cox recommended selling the $87 puts expiring in December, suggesting that being assigned at that price would not be problematic as it's in the mid-range of historical prices and the ETF pays a monthly dividend (00:24:18). Stephen Cox calculated the $87 put option has a near 80% probability of profit and may execute the trade today if the stock pulls back further for a better premium (00:25:10).
Review of Macy's Stock Performance Brendan O'Reilly 262626 mentioned that Macy's stock has doubled since its April low and spiked 7% recently (00:27:42). Stephen Cox commented that retail stocks are generally difficult to invest in due to high seasonality and, after a quick review, found Macy's not significantly undervalued and noted concerns over decreasing operating margins (00:28:35).
Market Commentary on US Economy Stephen Cox observed a "two-tier economy" in the US, where lower-income individuals are struggling, while middle and higher-income earners feel wealthy due to the performance of the stock market and Bitcoin. They noted that earnings from some restaurant chains reflect the financial strain on lower-income brackets (00:29:40).
Advice on Coterra (CTRA) Stock Richard Fitzgerald sought Stephen Cox's opinion on Catera, a stock that has recently spiked, noting they are back in profit. Stephen Cox explained that Coterra's revenue is split between oil and gas, and if crude oil is expected to rise from its current low, they should hold the stock (00:30:45). Considering the risks to crude oil prices, Stephen Cox suggested setting a limit order to sell Coterra at $28, rather than the previous target of $31, and holding until the ex-dividend date on the 13th to receive the 22-cent dividend (00:32:01).
Equity Scan Database Content Brendan O'Reilly 262626 asked about the selection logic for stocks in the Equity Scan database. Stephen Cox confirmed that the database contains all S&P 500 companies, large cap European and UK companies, and that they frequently add companies discussed in meetings if they are not already included (00:32:50).
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