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Oct 31st 2025 Stock Market Update

Updated over 2 months ago

Short Term Stock Trades

Options, Futures & Fx Trade Update

Long Term Stock Portfolio Update

This portfolio has had a strong year, with an annualized return on investment (ROI) of 21%.

We've already closed out two positions Entain and Vestas Wind Systems, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.
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Markets Review

Stocks

  • US Indices: US stocks generally faced pressure, continuing to react to the Federal Reserve's rate decision from the day prior, which was accompanied by language from the Fed Chair suggesting continued "optionality" for future policy. Mega-cap tech earnings were also a major focus.

    • The S&P 500 dropped 1%.

    • The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) ended slightly lower, closing down about 0.23%.

    • The Nasdaq Composite experienced a more significant decline, tumbling around 1.57%, largely due to sharp sell-offs in tech stocks amid concerns over large AI infrastructure spending and mixed reactions to major tech earnings.

  • Sector & Individual Stock Performance:

    • Financials, Real Estate, and Healthcare were among the leading sectors for the day.

    • Consumer Discretionary and Technology lagged significantly.

    • There was a disparity in reaction to mega-cap tech earnings:

      • Alphabet (Google parent) finished higher by about 2.5% after beating estimates.

      • Meta Platforms (Facebook parent) was down sharply, around 11.3%.

      • Microsoft was also lower, down around 2.9%.

Bonds

  • Treasury Yields: Yields were flat to modestly up across the curve, trading down from their highest levels reached immediately following the previous day's FOMC meeting. The market continued to digest the Fed's latest policy stance.

Commodities

  • Crude Oil (WTI & Brent): Both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil prices were slightly lower. WTI was down about 0.76%, and Brent saw a marginal dip.

  • Gold: Gold futures were lower for the day, continuing what some analysts saw as a technical "pullback."

  • US Natural Gas (NYMEX December 2025 Contract): Futures prices saw a significant decrease, with the December 2025 contract price declining by 25 cents from the previous week's close to settle lower at $3.815 per MMBtu (Million British Thermal Units). Henry Hub spot prices were around $3.36/MMBtu.

Foreign Exchange (FX)

  • The US Dollar Index (DXY) was marginally lower.

  • GBP/USD: The British Pound weakened against the US Dollar, falling about 0.35% and breaking below a key technical level (the 200-day Simple Moving Average). This was attributed to rising expectations for a Bank of England rate cut in December following soft UK economic data.

  • EUR/USD: The Euro was largely unchanged against the Dollar, holding around the 1.1570 level.

  • USD/JPY: The Yen continued to show weakness against the Dollar, as the pair trended higher, moving above 153.80.

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