Market Overview and Alphabet Earnings Stephen Cox shared his screen to discuss earnings results, noting that the SPY was down half a percent pre-market despite Alphabet (Google) reporting strong earnings and being up 8% pre-market. Stephen Cox stated that Alphabet "smashed their earnings" and also mentioned positive overnight news regarding a potential trade agreement between China and the US (00:01:53). Stephen Cox's view on Alphabet, which is held in the long-term portfolio, is to continue holding the stock, expecting upgrades and noting that the valuation multiples are the lowest among the Magnificent Seven stocks (00:02:59).

Alphabet Long-Term View and Valuation Stephen Cox reiterated the long-term investment strategy for Alphabet, mentioning that the stock has nearly doubled since purchase (00:03:59). Their confidence stems from understanding the product, specifically the Google business suite (workspace) and their AI and quantum computing growth, extending beyond its traditional role as an advertising company, and including mention of Waymo's rapid growth (00:04:51). Stephen Cox anticipates a price pullback but believes earnings and revenue estimates will continue to increase, advising to hold the stock unless a major US recession occurs (00:05:54).

Meta Earnings and Trading Strategy Meta reported earnings overnight and was down 10% (00:05:54). Stephen Cox noted this is a familiar scenario, with the stock selling off due to slightly lower-than-expected targets and high capital expenditure (capex) on AI. Stephen Cox recommended letting the situation "play itself out" and putting Meta on the radar as a potential long-term buy if it drops into the low $600s, but advised against buying today (00:06:51) (00:30:13).

Long Put Option Course and Nvidia Example Stephen Cox informed the attendees about a nearly complete long put option course that will be available on their website later today. They used Nvidia as an example, suggesting a long put option might be viable if there is "exhaustion" in the trade, which could lead to a pullback to around the $160 to $170 level (00:07:58).

Crude Oil Market Analysis and Put Option Strategy Stephen Cox is holding off on trading crude oil because it is creating a series of lower highs, indicating a clear down channel (00:09:44). They explained that if crude oil pops out of the channel and trades above the 50-day moving average, the downtrend might be over, but for now, they are seeing new lower lows being created (00:10:49). Stephen Cox's preferred strategy is to wait for crude oil to revisit the $56 level, which would significantly increase the premium received for a put option, such as the $50 strike in the December contract, offering a 94% probability of profit (00:11:59) (00:30:13).

SPY Trading Strategy and Volatility Considerations Stephen Cox is considering a new SPY trade for the December 19th expiry, looking at strikes around the 610-620 level if the current selloff continues (00:13:02). Roy Tyrrell asked if it would be better to wait for the VIX (volatility index) to go higher before placing a trade, to which Stephen Cox agreed, noting that the SPY IV rank is currently very low at 13 (00:15:13). Stephen Cox prefers selling put options when the VIX is high (ideally over 20) to receive better premium, explaining that a broader market selloff, possibly driven by mega-cap companies recalibrating lower, would increase the VIX (00:16:06).

Market Timing and Decision Making Roy Tyrrell questioned whether to let the market open and settle for about an hour before making a trade decision. Stephen Cox shared a past experience where waiting cost them, as a steep futures drop reversed into a rally (00:17:06). They advised that if trading SPY, waiting an hour is reasonable to see if the selloff intensifies, but emphasized that the decision must be made when it feels right, and one should be comfortable being assigned the stock when selling a put option (00:19:24).

Gold and Silver Market Outlook Stephen Cox analyzed gold, confirming it is in an uptrend but noted concern over recent "lower lows," advising caution against jumping into the trade immediately (00:20:25). They expect another attempt at the high but are waiting because they believe gold could fall another 5% to 10% down to a support area (00:21:29). Silver is in a similar situation, though it has not created a lower low today (00:22:31).

Gold ETF Put Option Strategy and Risk Assessment Stephen Cox discussed trading gold using the GLD ETF or futures, and suggested selling put options on GLD as a lower-risk way to participate (00:23:27). They noted that premiums are currently poor but could improve if the gold price drops further, possibly to the 320 to 330 range. The concern is that the "risk-off" premium is coming out of the trade due to positive news like the US-China agreement, suggesting more downside potential (00:24:47).

Alaska Air Group (ALK) Stock Pat O'Brien asked for Stephen Cox's view on Alaska Air Group (ALK), which Stephen Cox advised holding despite poor earnings and a software glitch. Stephen Cox saw the stock at a support level, comparing its situation to a previous 40% drop and subsequent recovery in Southwest Airlines, suggesting ALK will likely be similar (00:27:01). Stephen Cox warned Pat O'Brien to be prepared for the stock to drop to $35 if the current support level does not hold, where they would recommend picking up more shares (00:28:14).

Meeting Summary and Next Steps Stephen Cox summarized the main points, emphasizing sticking with Alphabet for the long term, watching for a Meta buying opportunity in the low $600s, waiting for better premiums on crude oil (preferring the $50 strike), and anticipating a potential new SPY trade later in the week if the selloff continues (00:29:10). They concluded the meeting, offering further assistance to attendees (00:30:13).