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Oct 23rd 2025 Member Meeting Recording

Updated over 2 months ago

Video

Summary

Stephen Cox and Michael Carroll discussed the wide spread of EOG options, while Stephen Cox and Michael Carroll also talked about SPY trade and taking profit. Stephen Cox further explained performance details and option Greeks, along with crude oil price movement and strategy. Stephen Cox and Michael Carroll delved into the relationship between Delta and Gamma, and Stephen Cox also analyzed gold and silver performance, as well as active stock trades. Stephen Gavin inquired about the banking and luxury sectors, while Richard Fitzgerald and Stephen Cox discussed Adobe and the impact of AI, and Stephen Cox further discussed AI and future job losses, and quantum computing and security risks. Lastly, Stephen Cox talked about shorting Nvidia and buying energy stock opportunities.

Details

  • EOG Spread and Option Chains Michael Carroll observed that the spread for EOG was quite wide, making it difficult to trade (00:01:56). Stephen Cox confirmed this, explaining that when they tried to place a trade, the spread was extremely wide, and it depends on expiry dates, with narrower spreads typically found closer to expiry due to increased trading activity. Stephen Cox suggested using open interest as a gauge for actively traded options, noting that volumes are greater closer to the money, resulting in narrower bid-ask spreads (00:03:08).

  • SPY Trade and Profit Taking Michael Carroll reported missing the SPY trade because the premiums disappeared quickly. Stephen Cox shared their experience, stating that they initially got in for $500, which increased to $600 an hour later before dropping (00:04:15). Stephen Cox also discussed different approaches to the short put strategy, including taking assignment of shares or closing the trade when 50% of the maximum profit is achieved. Stephen Cox indicated that they generally let their SPY trades run to collect the full premium unless it disintegrates rapidly (00:06:25).

  • Performance Details and Option Greeks Stephen Cox clarified that the "break even" and "probability" displayed in the performance details area of their trading platform are based on the current price of the contract, not the price at which the trade was initially placed. Stephen Cox explained that the Greeks, such as Theta, indicate the rate at which the option's value erodes daily, which is a benefit for sellers of put options (00:08:48).

  • Crude Oil Price Movement and Strategy Stephen Cox discussed the 5% jump in crude oil prices, attributing it to the US adding to strategic reserves, lack of meetings between Russia and the US, and sanctions on Russian oil exporters. Stephen Cox mentioned that India has committed to reducing oil purchases from Russia, further supporting oil prices (00:09:42). Stephen Cox noted that they are currently out of their oil trade and plan to wait for a pullback before re-entering with a short put at the $55 or $50 mark (00:10:47).

  • Oil Price Rationale and Future Outlook Stephen Cox explained that their initial rationale for oil was based on the financial unviability for many producers at $55 a barrel, expecting supply reduction and price stabilization. They also noted that oil prices were reflecting potential peace in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, along with China's economic struggles (00:11:51). Stephen Cox advised against chasing the current oil rally and suggested waiting for prices to give back some gains before considering re-entry (00:12:49).

  • Relationship Between Delta and Gamma Michael Carroll inquired about the delta on MCL mini futures jumping, and Stephen Cox confirmed that the call option value would have increased significantly (00:12:49). Stephen Cox elaborated on the relationship between Delta and Gamma, stating that Delta increases with the share price, and Gamma is the rate of increase of Delta for a $1 move in the underlying share price, emphasizing that Delta is never static (00:13:55).

  • Gold and Silver Performance Stephen Cox highlighted a 9% increase in gold over five to six days, but noted that all those gains were given back in two days. Stephen Cox expressed caution regarding gold, particularly after it created a lower low, and stated that they would only consider going long if it retreated another 10% (00:15:13). Stephen Cox also mentioned that central banks have been buying gold reserves, reducing supply, and that gold is a safe haven during times of uncertainty. Stephen Cox indicated that the same analysis applies to silver (00:16:08).

  • Active Stock Trades Review Stephen Cox provided updates on active stock trades: Alaska Airlines has earnings out, Southwest Airlines had good earnings but finished down despite an initial pre-market jump, Flutter is consolidating, MGM is up pre-market, and Domino's is nearing its target (00:16:08). Stephen Cox stated they would stick with these four active stock trades and are not looking to add many new positions due to market volatility. Michael Carroll shared that they heard Southwest Airlines might return to seat allocation, which could explain its recent fall (00:18:26).

  • Luxury and Banking Sector Analysis Stephen Gavin inquired about the banking and luxury sectors (00:20:33). Stephen Cox noted that while luxury stocks like Louis Vuitton previously showed great value on equity scan, they no longer do, and it is difficult to invest with certainty due to tariffs and unknowns (00:21:21). Stephen Cox also advised against buying financial stocks currently, as potential interest rate cuts could erode net interest margins, which are vital for banks (00:24:11).

  • Adobe and AI Impact Richard Fitzgerald discussed Adobe, stating that its subscriptions are down due to AI advancements and cheaper, more powerful image generation tools (00:25:02). Stephen Cox agreed with the risk to Adobe but noted that analysts are split, with some reporting increased traction for Adobe's enterprise AI (00:26:21). Stephen Cox also praised Google's AI capabilities, such as Gemini, for quickly generating images, and mentioned Gamma.ai as another impressive tool for creating presentations (00:27:56).

  • AI and Future Job Losses Stephen Cox addressed concerns about AI overinvestment and the lack of immediate return on investment for some companies, similar to Meta's metaverse investments (00:29:59). Stephen Cox also expressed concerns about potential job losses due to AI, particularly in customer service roles, citing examples of virtual tele-sales agents (00:31:02). Richard Fitzgerald supported this, sharing Fiserv's experience of using AI to significantly reduce in-person phone calls by routing people to the correct information (00:32:13).

  • Quantum Computing and Security Risks Stephen Cox highlighted that quantum computing is an even larger development than AI, which is still in its early stages (00:33:25). Stephen Cox mentioned concerns about the power of quantum computing to solve problems quickly and the potential risks to encryption, affecting banking, messaging, and passwords (00:34:28).

  • Shorting Nvidia and Energy Stock Opportunities Stephen Cox indicated that they are considering shorting Nvidia, not outright, but through put options, anticipating a valuation multiple reset due to increased competition from AMD and other providers (00:35:52). Stephen Cox also suggested that if oil prices continue to rise, quality energy stocks, many of which are currently undervalued, could present good investment opportunities (00:37:01).

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