Short Term Stock Trades
Options, Futures & Fx Trade Update
Crude Oil Oct 29th Short $55 Puts for the December Futures contract:
This trade is going as planned. When we entered this trade Crude Oil was trading at $60. It is now trading at $58.66. When we sold our Put options contract the premium we received was $490 per contract. The value is now at $520 per contract meaning that we are losing of $30per contract. There is still $490 of potential profit in this trade and we will do nothing for now.
SPY Financed Bear Put Spread:
I’ve closed our SPY 660/650 bear put spread, which earned a premium of $134.
Our SPY $620 Oct 17th short put remains open. If SPY stays above $620 by October 17th, we'll make a profit of $35 per contract. SPY is currently at $662. Nothing to so with this trade.
While this is less than we'd hoped for, it's a solid example of how to short the market with reduced risk and still make a profit even if the trade doesn't move as expected.
The options portfolio is now up 43% for the year.
Long Term Stock Portfolio Update
This portfolio has had a strong year, with an annualized return on investment (ROI) of 21%.
We've already closed out two positions Entain and Vestas Wind Systems, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.
Markets Review
On Tuesday, October 14, 2025, U.S. markets were mixed, with renewed U.S.-China trade tensions overshadowing a strong start to the earnings season from major banks.
U.S. Stock Market
Major Indices: The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 both gave back some of their gains from the previous day's rally. The Nasdaq fell 0.8% to 22,521.70, and the S&P 500 was down 0.2% to 6,644.31, turning negative in the last half-hour of trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, however, closed higher, rising 0.4% to 46,270.46, buoyed by strong performances from several of its components.
Sector and Company Performance:
Technology: The tech sector was a significant drag on the market. Semiconductor stocks, in particular, were hit hard by worries over the U.S.-China trade policies. Nvidia (NVDA) and Intel (INTC) both fell over 4%, with Nvidia being the top decliner on the Dow.
Banking: Major banks kicked off their Q3 earnings reports with solid results, but their stock performance was mixed. Wells Fargo (WFC) was a standout, surging over 7% after beating profit forecasts and raising its profitability outlook. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) and Goldman Sachs (GS) also reported strong results but their shares fell or were mostly flat.
Other Notables:
Walmart (WMT) stock climbed about 5% after announcing a new partnership with OpenAI that will allow shoppers to use ChatGPT for instant checkout.
Caterpillar (CAT) rose around 4.5%, contributing to the Dow's positive performance.
Critical Metals (CRML) continued its sharp rise, jumping another 29% after China announced new restrictions on rare-earths exports.
Humana (HUM) shares lost 3.5% after a court ruled against the health insurer in a lawsuit challenging downgrades to its Medicare Advantage star ratings.
Bonds
Yields: The bond market was in a "risk-off" mood as investors sought safety amid rising geopolitical tensions. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 0.02%, consistent with a flight to safety. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the central bank could be positioned for two more interest rate cuts this year, which helped boost companies sensitive to mortgage rates.
Commodities
Crude Oil: Oil prices tumbled due to the re-escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions and a bearish report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The IEA's report projected a significant global oil surplus, which weighed on sentiment. WTI crude oil futures fell 1.3% to settle at $58.70 per barrel.
Gold: Gold continued its recent upward trend, reaching a new record high above $4,100 per ounce, buoyed by the "risk-off" trading sentiment.
U.S. Natural Gas: U.S. natural gas futures were lower, pressured by mild October weather, which maintained a downward pressure on prices. The November contract was down 2.5% to $3.041 per million British thermal units (MMBtu).
Forex
U.S. Dollar: The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against a basket of currencies, was higher as investors sought safe-haven assets.
EUR/USD: The Euro dropped to support at 1.1550 amid a stronger U.S. dollar and political instability in France.
USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair continued a corrective wave after testing the 153.26 level.
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