Short Term Stock Trade Update

We remain with Alaska Airlines. Current price is $49.14. We bought it at $49.07. We remain with our short term target price of $55 (12% upside), should the 20 day moving average move below this we will adjust our target price accordingly. We will notify you when we exit the trade.

We also remain with Flutter FLTR.L on the LSE. Current price is £18050. We bought it at £18650. We remain with our short term target price of £20500 (10% upside), should the 20 day moving average move below this we will adjust our target price accordingly. We will notify you when we exit the trade.

New Stocks added to Short Term Trade Watchlist: CZR, TSN

Options, Futures & Fx Trade Update

Crude Oil Oct 29th Short $55 Puts for the December Futures contract:

This trade is going as planned. When we entered this trade Crude Oil was trading at $60. It is now trading at $62.52. When we sold our Put options contract the premium we received was $490 per contract. The value is now at $160 per contract meaning that we are in a profit of $330 per contract. There is still $160 of potential profit in this trade and we will do nothing for now.

SPY Financed Bear Put Spread: I’ve closed our SPY 660/650 bear put spread, which earned a premium of $134.

Our SPY $620 Oct 17th short put remains open. If SPY stays above $620 by October 17th, we'll make a profit of $35 per contract. SPY is currently at $673. Nothing to so with this trade.

While this is less than we'd hoped for, it's a solid example of how to short the market with reduced risk and still make a profit even if the trade doesn't move as expected.

The options portfolio is now up 43% for the year.

Long Term Stock Portfolio Update

This portfolio has had a strong year, with an annualized return on investment (ROI) of 22%. We've already closed out two positions, one with a 50% gain and another with a 30% gain, both achieved in less than six months.

Notes:

We recently added Alaska Airlines and Flutter to the portfolio.

Markets Review

A review of the financial markets for Wednesday, October 8, 2025:

Stocks

Global stock markets largely rebounded on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting new record highs, driven by a "buy the dip" sentiment after a modest pullback on Tuesday. Investors appeared to shrug off a week-long government shutdown and ongoing political uncertainties in France. A significant factor in the market's positive momentum was the continued bullishness in the AI sector, with companies like Nvidia seeing a rise in their stock. However, some analysts and institutions, including the Bank of England, expressed concerns about a potential "sudden correction" in tech stocks due to the rapid AI-driven rally.

US Markets: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both closed at new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, while also advancing, lagged behind its counterparts.
European Markets: Stocks in Europe closed in the black, with the Stoxx 600 reaching new record highs despite political gridlock in France.
London Markets: London stocks extended gains, with the FTSE 100 hitting fresh highs. This was buoyed by strong performances from gold miners and banks like Lloyds and Close Brothers.
Asian Markets: Asian stocks were mixed, with many taking their lead from the previous day's pullback on Wall Street.

Bonds

Bond markets remained relatively stable. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes eased slightly, with fixed-income traders awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) September meeting. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced the subscription and allocation results for a new batch of "Silver Bonds," which saw record-high demand, indicating a continued public appetite for safe, low-risk investments with steady returns.

Commodities

The commodities market was dominated by a surge in gold prices.

Gold: Gold continued its historic rally, climbing past the $4,000 per ounce mark for the first time ever. This was attributed to investors seeking "safe haven" assets amid ongoing global political and economic uncertainty. The price rise marked the eighth consecutive weekly gain for the precious metal.
US Natural Gas: Natural gas prices showed volatility. While some sources indicated that gas futures were exhibiting bullish tendencies, other reports noted that natural gas descended on the day. The market is braced for a volatile winter season due to geopolitical tensions and dynamic supply-demand fundamentals. US natural gas prices are projected to recover in 2025, with a significant forecast jump as new LNG terminals are expected to draw international demand.
Other Commodities: Crude oil and silver prices saw gains, while lumber and copper descended.

Foreign Exchange (FX)

The US Dollar was higher on the day, reaching its strongest level in two months. This was seen by some as a sign of strengthening confidence in US domestic conditions compared to other nations, despite the ongoing government shutdown. In other currency news:

The Japanese Yen was sold off aggressively, a move attributed to expectations that the new Japanese prime minister will maintain ultra-loose monetary policy, potentially delaying efforts by the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates.
The New Zealand Dollar experienced a volatile day, initially selling off heavily after the Royal Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly delivered a 50 basis point rate cut, but later recovering most of its losses.
The Swiss Franc was also sold off, with "dovish talks" from the Swiss National Bank leading to a return of "carry trades."