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March 6th 2025 Stock Market Update

Updated over a month ago

US benchmark equity indexes closed higher Wednesday as markets reacted to the one-month exemption for automakers on Mexico and Canada tariffs by President Donald Trump.

The Nasdaq Composite gained 1.5% to 18,552.7, while the S&P 500 grew 1.1% to 5,842.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 1.1% to 43,006.6. Materials posted the highest gains, while energy and utilities declined.

US Treasury yields were higher, with the 10-year rate gaining about 3.4 basis points to 4.3% and the two-year rate was up 0.2 basis points to nearly 4%.April West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped 2.7% to $66.40 a barrel Wednesday.

In economic news, the White House announced a one-month delay in tariffs for automakers on imports from Canada and Mexico, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told the press. The news comes after President Donald Trump reportedly spoke with the leaders of Ford Motor, General Motors, and Stellantis on Tuesday.
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Two surveys regarding the US services sector's February performance presented a mixed picture, with the Institute for Supply Management's data showing unexpected growth while S&P Global reported a slowdown. Both surveys highlighted the uncertainty surrounding potential trade tariffs under the Trump administration. Meanwhile, employment growth in the US private sector eased in February to its slowest pace since July 2024.

In company news, CrowdStrike was the worst performer on the S&P 500 with shares down over 6% after the company's fiscal Q1 and full-year earnings outlooks trailed market estimates.

Abercrombie & Fitch shares fell 9.2% after the apparel retailer guided for a slowdown in sales growth in fiscal 2025, while issuing Q1 earnings outlook below Wall Street estimates.

Moderna was leading S&P 500 gainers with shares up over 16% after President Stephen Hoge said during an investor conference that the company continues to expect potential approval of its investigational individualized neoantigen therapy by 2027.

Gold increased 0.3% to $2,929.3 per troy ounce, while silver was up 2.8% to $33.27 per troy ounce.

Portfolio News

  • Active Trading Portfolio: Germany's significant defense and infrastructure spending announcement yesterday, coupled with the potential for reduced ECB rate cuts, propelled the Euro to impressive heights. EUR/USD reaching 1.08 underscores the current market volatility, making it challenging to pinpoint clear FX trading opportunities. With the ECB speaking today, it's prudent to allow these developments to settle before resuming our FX strategies.

    Meanwhile, Crude Oil is retesting support levels. While the EU and German stimulus packages offer bullish signals, the potential return of Russian oil to the market could increase supply, creating downward pressure. Any oil trades should be approached with a short-term perspective.

    Given the current market dynamics, we recommend focusing on option trading strategies, specifically selling premium, over the next few days. This approach allows us to capitalize on volatility while mitigating risk. Check Out the Active Trading Portfolio.

  • Option Trading Portfolio: Yesterday, we proactively adjusted our SPY bear put spread to give us more breathing room in this volatile market, and we even profited from the move! This highlights the flexibility that options trading provides.

    Essentially, we bought back the March 21st $570 put and simultaneously sold an April 17th $560 put on SPY, generating a credit of $90 per contract. This clever maneuver effectively lowered our breakeven point by $10.90 per share, or just under 2%. Check Out the Option Trading portfolio.

  • Buy and Hold Portfolio: Our long-term buy-and-hold portfolio has achieved a 7% year-to-date return, outperforming the broader market indexes (which are down 2%!). We are evaluating eight additional stocks for potential inclusion in the portfolio. Please refer to our Buy and Hold Portfolio for details. We will provide an update upon the completion of our stock selection. Check out out the Buy and Hold Portfolio.

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