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Market Mayhem Makeover! ๐ Our daily updates just got an upgrade:
S&P 500: Your broad market snapshot.
Spread Bet Blitz: Hot trades across stocks, commodities & FX! We're up 28% in one month (12 wins, 1 loss!) on our live spread betting account (tax-free in some areas!). Track every move, stop loss, & profit target in our daily spreadsheet (works for stocks/futures too!).
Options Unleashed: Follow our 2024 option plays with updated commentary.
Long-Term Lions: Our buy-and-hold portfolio (think CTRA, ENT.L, JDW.L) โ see EquityScan for deeper dives. Coterra? Hold, not buy right now.
Other topics: Earnings etc..
PLUS: Phase 1 of EquityScan is about to be released! Your feedback is crucial as we build Phase 2 of EquityScan: Your own portfolio & trade trackers! Tell us what you need so we can deliver the ultimate trading tool for you. Let's conquer the markets together!
S&P 500
S&P 500 Snapshot: The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 5944, down 0.8%, but the day's trading was more volatile than that figure suggests. Concerns about potential trade conflicts initially drove the index down as much as 2%. However, a subsequent announcement of a 30-day suspension of certain tariffs provided some relief, allowing the market to recover a portion of its losses. The index finished the day below its 50-day moving average. With corporate earnings generally strong, but the risk of future trade tensions remaining, we anticipate the index will likely move sideways in the near term.
Spreadbet Blitz
๐ Our portfolio crushed it in January, soaring 28%! Even with our Morningstar position currently down, we're still killing it. Here's the Morningstar plan (see below). No new spread bets todayโjust patiently watching stocks & commodities (like Natural Gas) for perfect setups.
Morningstar Update: Our MORN trade is currently underwater, a reminder that not all trades are winners right away. We're still far from our stop-loss (see spreadsheet) and holding for now. No new MORN trades recommended. No earnings risk until Feb 20th. Last close: $326.91 (down 0.53%).
Instruments on our watchlist but not yet ready to trade:
Options Unleashed
SPY Options Update: SPY closed at $597.77. We're watching the tariff fallout closely and may initiate risk management near $580. Quick recap: We initially bought a $590 put, sold $580 & $560 puts (Feb 21st expiry), netting $45. We then sold the $590 put for $295, totaling $340 credit. Now, we're short the $580 & $560 puts, targeting $340 profit if they expire worthless. Time decay ("theta") is our friend here. $405 in time value remains. Risk management: Conservative (close $580 put for $250 ) or Active (hold $580, roll to $560 March expiry if SPY hits $590). I'm going with active management, watching SPY closely due to tariff volatility.
XSP Short Put Update: XSP closed at $599.46. We're monitoring the tariff situation, but our February $550 short puts look safe for now. Quick recap: We sold these mini S&P 500 puts on January 3rd for a cool $300 premium. They're now worth $53, putting us $247 in the green! If XSP stays above $550 by February 21st, we keep the full $300. We're holding tight for now, but those tariffs could stir things up. We'll be watching the market closely this week.
TLT Short Put Update: TLT at $88.16. We sold the $84 put (Feb 21st expiry) for $108 premium (breakeven $82.92). Our initial goal was assignment (buying TLT at $84), but with TLT above $84, that's less likely. New plan: Let it ride! If TLT stays above $84, we pocket the $108. We might not get the shares, but we're still set for a win.
EUR/USD Short Put Update: The Euro is at 1.0319 against the dollar. We're sitting pretty on our March 7th put option (strike 1.0000) after collecting a juicy $488 premium! If the EUR/USD stays above parity, it expires worthless and we keep the whole chunk of change. If it drops below, we might be assigned (buying EUR/USD at 1.0000). For now, we're chilling and letting time decay work its magic. The FX pair was as low as 1.02 yesterday went tariff fears were at their worst. The 30 day delay announced by Trump caused an immediate relief in the strength on the USD causing the FX pair to move back above 1.03.
Long Term Lions
Entain (ENT.L): Still a Winner, But took a breather yesterday (As expected)! ๐ Entain keeps galloping ahead, up 11% since we picked it! It closed at 695 yesterday (-1.67%). Long term, we see a potential 38% gain long-term, BUT it's at resistance, so expect a short-term pullback. Keep your position under 5% (even for a champ like Entain) and use GBP on IBKR to avoid those pesky FX fees. Entain's a long-term play, but smart traders manage risk!
JD Weatherspoon (JDW.L) is Heating Up! ๐ฅ Shares fell -2.16% yesterday. We think this pub chain is ready to pour on the gains! At ยฃ6.11, our target is ยฃ8.45 within 18 months! Even with UK tax headwinds, JDW.L looks tasty. Remember: Dollar-cost average, keep your position size below 5%, and watch out for currency risk if you're not holding GBP. Cheers! ๐ป
Coterra Energy (CTRA): Hold Your Horses! โ ๏ธ CTRA rallied 1.1% to $28.04. Overbought signals recently were flashing, and with natural gas prices plummeting due to warm weather, a pullback was inevitable. Natural Gas prices jumping 10% yesterday helped! Long-term investors: Don't panic! Our $35 target still implies a 30% gain. Coterra's earnings should be strong thanks to higher average energy prices. Short-term traders: Consider taking some profits off the table. CTRA is still a solid energy play for the long haul, but expect choppy waters ahead. Stay vigilant!
Earnings Season
Notables from yesterday:
Tyson Foods (TSN): They beat expectations on both earnings and revenue, driven by strong performance in their chicken segment. This suggests their operational efficiency is improving and they're benefiting from favorable market conditions.
Palantir Technologies (PLTR): Palantir also exceeded expectations, particularly on revenue. This indicates continued strong demand for their data analytics and AI solutions.
NXP Semiconductors (NXPI): NXP had a solid performance, with earnings and revenue slightly above forecasts. This highlights their resilience in the semiconductor market.
IDEXX Laboratories (IDXX): IDEXX surpassed estimates, showing growth in their diagnostics and healthcare solutions for animals.
Equity Residential (EQR): EQR significantly outperformed expectations, mainly driven by higher revenue. This signals strength in the real estate sector.
Key Themes:
Positive surprises: Many companies beat analysts' predictions, suggesting a potentially strong earnings season overall.
Resilience: Even with economic uncertainties, many companies demonstrated solid performance.
Sector-specific trends: Strong performance in areas like technology, healthcare, and consumer staples was observed.
Reporting Today:
Any questions?
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Happy Investing & Trading
Stephen
Invest with Confidence